Australia spy boss warns of foreign assassination plots by agents of at least three nations

SYDNEY: Australia’s domestic spy agency has increasingly stepped out of the shadows in recent years, sounding public warnings about the growing threat posed by foreign agents operating inside the country.

The head of the agency, Mike Burgess, has delivered an annual threat assessment address since 2020 and makes regular public appearances to urge greater vigilance against risks such as cyber attacks, foreign interference, terrorism and traditional espionage.

But in an address to the Lowy Institute on Nov 4, Burgess, who heads the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), added a new – and somewhat surprising – threat to the list, warning that ASIO had assessed that “at least three” countries could try to assassinate opponents in Australia.

His warnings came amid growing concern about attempts by foreign governments to conduct interference, espionage and potential attacks in Australia.

“In Australia, we always had an additional level of isolation from this kind of activity because of the sheer power of geography,” said Chris Taylor, a former national security official who heads the Statecraft and Intelligence Policy Centre at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“To commit espionage or sabotage, you had to transport a person or convince someone in Australia to do it,” he told The Straits Times. “The use of the criminal proxy closes that – if you can find someone who is willing or able to do anything for money, it transforms the situation.”

Burgess did not name the countries in his address, prompting a flurry of speculation about which countries he was referring to.

But the revelation, which followed Canberra’s announcement in August 2025 that it had intelligence showing Iran was behind at least two anti-Semitic arson attacks in Australia in 2024, has added to concerns about the growing risk in Australia of violence orchestrated by foreign agents.

In his address, Burgess said authoritarian regimes posed a growing threat, citing tactics such as the spread of “fake terrorist propaganda” or online vitriol that could lead to attacks or violent protests. He added that ASIO had assessed “there is a realistic possibility a foreign government will attempt to assassinate a perceived dissident in Australia”.

“This threat is real,” he said. “We believe there are at least three nations willing and capable of conducting lethal targeting here.”

Referring to the arson attacks in Australia, which authorities believe was ordered by Iran using overseas organised criminals and local criminals, Burgess said: “It is entirely possible the regimes would try to hide their involvement (in assassinations) by hiring criminal cutouts, as Iran did when directing its arson attacks.”

Following Burgess’ speech, India, Russia and Iran were most frequently cited by analysts as the three most likely countries that he was referring to.

Taylor believed the likely countries included India, Iran, Russia and North Korea. He noted that other nations – including China, Rwanda and Vietnam – had a history of targeting dissidents without being known to have assassinated them, while Israel and the US had targeted perceived threats abroad but not dissidents.

Taylor said the threat of foreign agencies orchestrating activities in Australia is growing, partly because these agencies are increasingly willing to use local criminals and connections rather than deploying their own agents.

He cited Iran, which oversaw the 2024 attacks in Sydney and Melbourne, and Russia’s Wagner Group, believed to have conducted an arson attack in London in March 2024 targeting a warehouse storing aid for Ukraine.

The speculation about India, which has increasingly close ties to Australia, followed allegations that it ordered recent assassination plots of Sikh separatists in Canada and the US.

In 2023, Canada accused India of assassinating separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was shot in British Columbia. India denied the claim, which resulted in the two countries conducting tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats. In October 2024, the US charged a former Indian intelligence officer of organising a plot to assassinate Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York in 2023.

Australia has also allegedly been targeted by Indian intelligence agents.

In 2020, a ring of Indian spies was reportedly uncovered and expelled from Australia after monitoring members of the diaspora community as well as targeting politicians, a foreign embassy, and a state police service.

The ring was first revealed in 2021 by Mr Burgess, who discussed ASIO’s role in removing a “nest of spies”. He did not name the country, but The Washington Post reported in April 2024 that it was India – a claim confirmed by Australian media outlets. Burgess did not confirm that the spies were from India.

Russia is not known to have targeted any figures in Australia but has been accused of targeting and assassinating opponents and dissidents abroad. These include the poisonings in Britain of former Russian security agent Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal in 2018.

Burgess, in his Nov 4 address, said Russian intelligence was involved in “covertly stoking and amplifying division here” by instructing pro-Russia propagandists and influencers in Australia.

But some experts were sceptical about whether there was a serious threat of an assassination of a dissident in Australia.

Professor Clive Williams, a former defence intelligence official and visiting fellow at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, told ST that he believed “no one… is likely to do that sort of thing in Australia”.

“I don’t see the likelihood of anyone being knocked off in Australia,” he said.

Prof Williams said countries such as Iran, whose ambassador to Australia was expelled in August over the arson attacks, and India, which suffered diplomatic “blowback” from Canada, would be keen to avoid potential repercussions.

“Russia hasn’t shown very much interest (in Australia),” he said. “I don’t know of anyone in Australia who has caused a particular problem (for Russia) or would be regarded as a traitor.”

He added: “(Burgess) has information that is not available to anyone else so it is not possible to check these things.”

Still, Burgess’ recent series of speeches have tended to include a range of revelations about foreign activities in Australia. In a speech to business leaders on Nov 12, he accused Chinese state-backed hackers of targeting the nation’s critical infrastructure and telecommunications networks.

Fears of foreign-orchestrated violence have prompted the federal government to introduce legislation on Nov 6 to target state-sponsored terrorism.

The Bill allows authorities to designate a foreign government entity as a sponsor of terrorism and outlaws engagement with or support for such entities, including membership or providing financial support. The move follows ASIO intelligence on the role of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in ordering arson attacks.

Australian Attorney-General Michelle Rowland said in a statement: “This legislation is a warning that foreign states and their supporters who seek to fuel division, create fear, erode social cohesion and perpetrate violence in the Australian community will be held to account.”

Mike Pezzullo, a former head of Australia’s Home Affairs Department, told Sky News that he believed Burgess’ warnings about the growing threat from foreign state actors conducting assassinations or using tactics such as misinformation or foreign interference were the “tip of the tip of the iceberg”.

“None of the things that Burgess spoke about came as a shock to me,” he said.

“The thing that worries me the most are very capable state actors that can turn all of these tools, if they want to, in a concerted campaign and really affect our functioning as a society.”